Risk Theory

Risk theory is a concept in strategic military theory that was formulated by the German Grand Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz at the very end of the 19th century. He theorized that if the German Navy reached a certain level of strength relative to the British Navy, the British would try to avoid confrontation with Germany. If the two navies fought, the German Navy would be destroyed but the British Navy would be fatally crippled. Because the British relied on their navy to maintain control over the British Empire, they would rather keep control of the empire and let Germany become a world power rather than lose the empire as the cost of keeping Germany less powerful.

This theory sparked a naval arms race between Germany and Great Britain in the first decade of the 20th century. Germany was forced to reduce its building plan so the German Navy was never large enough to make risk theory viable.